The road transport market is constantly growing. The traffic volume is strongly increasing every year. How will the situation look like in 2021, according to specialists? Check the forecasts!
Changes on a large scale
Transport market in Poland has been undergoing dynamic changes for several years now. We can observe a significant increase in the amount of transported goods not only in our country, but also abroad – to Spain or Germany. The situation will not change in 2021, which is also expected to increase compared to 2020. Transport and logistics technology, as well as the regulatory environment are also changing. The increase in tonnage handled is unfortunately resulting in a driver shortage that is getting worse every year. Unfortunately, there is also a negative effect of transport growth
Transportation volumes – how much will they increase by?
Taking into account the forecasts for 2018-2022, where the total growth was estimated at almost 23 percent, it is easy to calculate that the change in 2021 compared to 2020 will be about 5.4 percent. We are talking here not only about road transport, but also river, rail, sea or air transport. However, as in previous years, the biggest increase will be observed in the case of trucks. Unfortunately, transport costs will also go up. It will be about 10 percent by the end of 2020 and more in the following years. According to forecasts, the demand for domestic transport will increase strongly in the coming years. In contrast, groupage transport will decline.
EU regulations influencing the reorganization of international transport
The European Union is planning fundamental changes in the field of road transport. Among other things, the Mobility Package will change. It is estimated that the transport work of Polish international transport sector may decrease even by 13 percent in comparison to previous years. Why?
- polish carriers will decide to shift their services to the Polish market,
- access to the market will be limited, which will result in a decrease in revenues,
- costs of labor and transport networks will increase,
- complicated regulations will make smaller carriers abandon their operations within the EU,
- it will be necessary to open offices in other countries, coordination of the fleet of vehicles only from Poland will not be possible.
Process automation – faster and easier
More and more companies in Poland are getting digitalized. This is one of the reasons for the growth in the transport industry. We are talking about computerization of processes, automation of administrative services or optimization of transport networks. The development of digital platforms also translates into a higher number of customer orders, resulting in more orders. Increasing applications that work on artificial intelligence, blockchain-based solutions, and telematics are also forecast to enter the transportation industry. Digitalization will be key to lowering transportation costs, which will continue to rise both in our country and across the European Union.
Shortage of employees
Unfortunately, there are also unfavorable aspects accompanying the development of the transport industry. There is already a shortage of experienced, qualified drivers. This will get worse, estimated up to 200 thousand drivers in 2022. In 2015 it was 100-110 thousand. The shortage will double in 7 years. The insufficient number of drivers in transport will result in an increase in wages, and consequently freight rates will also go up. This will somehow force the introduction of autonomous solutions into transport. All indications are that by 2025, transportation will be partially automated, with the driver having control over the truck only remotely. After 2025, complete autonomy is expected. However, nothing will fill the gap in the coming years, which will be nearly 200,000 as early as 2021, which translates to about 20 percent of the total labor demand.